The effect of modal shift to micromobility upon the parking demand

Abstract

Modal shift to micromobility, namely bicycle and scooter, has the potential to impact urban space through the changes in parking demand. Investigating the factors affecting the shift and its likelihood is necessary to forecast the changes. In this paper, a novel method for the estimation of parking demand generated by rising micromobility use is presented. Private and shared ownerships, docking types (dockless and docked), users’ preferences, trip characteristics, and endogenous factors are considered. Sections of a questionnaire survey are proposed to provide inputs to the method. The method is validated using a simulation. The key findings are: (i) shifting from car use reduces car parking demand by 37%, freeing urban space up; (ii) public transport/walking shift to micromobility requires 17% more parking spaces for bicycle and scooter, increasing the demand for urban space; (iii) shared docked mobility forms require 67% more urban space than dockless ones. The application of the method allows a detailed analysis of the barriers to modal shift and facilitates the proposition of efficient measures to improve the shifting.