Bayesian Inference

Abstract

Chapter 4 introduces the concept of Bayesian inference. The chapter discusses the scientific method, and illustrates how Bayes’ Theorem can be used for scientific inference. Bayesian inference is the use of Bayes’ Theorem to draw conclusions about a set of mutually exclusive and exhaustive alternative hypotheses by linking prior knowledge about each hypothesis with new data. The result is updated probabilities for each hypothesis of interest. By the end of this chapter, the reader will understand the concepts of induction and deduction, prior probability of a hypothesis, likelihood of the observed data, and posterior probability of a hypothesis, given the data.