Lightning probability forecast in Mainland Portugal

Abstract

• A study based on 13 years of lightning data is presented using Cloud-to-Ground (CG) flash density maps on a 0.2°x0.2° resolution grid (Fig.1), as well as intra annual distributions (Fig.2). Thunderstorm events in mainland Portugal result primarily from frontal systems approaching in the winter/spring seasons and convective instability in the summer/autumn seasons, especially due to diurnal surface heating, particularly observed during the months of May to September.