Recent Legislative Measures to Reduce Overcrowding of Prisons in Italy: A Preliminary Assessment of Their Economic Impact

Abstract

This paper analyses the effects of two recent reforms introduced in Italy since 2010 in an attempt to reduce prison overcrowding. The first, introduced by the law no. 199 of 2010 on home detention for prisoners with final conviction. The second, passed by the decree law no. 211 of 2011 on home detention for criminals arrested awaiting trial. The results of econometric analysis prove that there reforms have achieved objective to reduce the overcrowding of prisons in the short run, but in the long run they contribute to exacerbate the problem. A strong relationship were find between the several kind of crimes and the total of prisoners. The two reforms seems to be positively correlated with property crimes (a pickpockets and home thefts), but not with violent crimes. Finally, the impact of the changes introduced in the condition to be eligible to access at home detection, has a negative impact on welfare.