The Macroeconomic Effects of Commodity Price Uncertainty

Abstract

This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of commodity price uncertainty (CPU) shocks. Using Australia as a case study, an econometric-based CPU index is proposed to reveal that Australia has experienced an unprecedented increase in uncertainty from the commodity market recently. Evidence from a VAR model shows that CPU shocks have a larger recessionary impact than other relevant uncertainty shocks such as financial, economic and trade policy uncertainty. The empirical results are then interpreted in a non-linear multisector DSGE model of the Australian economy by estimating key parameters in the DSGE model to match its responses to the VAR responses. CPU shocks in the DSGE model, via foreign commodity export demand with price rigidity, trigger a precautionary response and cause a decline in real economic activity.