A Bayesian Critical Path Method for Managing Common Risks in Software Project Scheduling

Abstract

Although project managers nowadays can use a range of tools and techniques to develop, monitor and control project schedules, the task of creating project schedules is often very difficult since it has to deal with planning against uncertainty. Popular techniques for project scheduling based on the assumption that projects are carried out as planned or scheduled -- which hardly happens. This paper takes the advantage of Bayesian Networks in modeling uncertainty and incorporates them in Critical Path Method - one of the most popular means of monitoring project scheduling. The paper also examines common risk factors in project scheduling and proposes a model of 19 common risk factors. A tool was also built, and experiments were carried out to validate the model.