COVID-19 and CreditWatch list as an economic indicator

Abstract

The global pandemic attributable to COVID-19 interrupted a decade-long U.S. expansionary cycle. While governments intervened to manage the health crisis, the economy stalled, and equity markets crashed. However, equity markets quickly recovered and moved to positive territory a few months later. We examine the actions of credit rating agencies (CRAs) and the signals that are sent through S&P Global Ratings (S&P) Watch List activity. After creating a significant indicator based on CreditWatch activity reflecting private firm information, we find that the swift recovery may have been foreseeable for non-insurance firms. The indicator provides less potential predictive power for insurance firms, either because the greater regulatory activity surrounding insurance firms yields less private information to be discovered by CRAs or the insurance industry is more resilient to economic shock than other sectors of the economy.