Modeling the effect of population density on controlling Covid-19 initial Spread with the use of MATLAB numerical methods and stringency index model

Abstract

The effect of population density on the initial spread of the novel Covid-19 virus has been evaluated using the numerical data of fifty pioneer adopting countries in their first thirty days experience with the disease. The fifty countries were curdled into ten groups that each of them possesses an average population density and each group’s virus’s spread was modeled in a two-dimensional graph with the use of MATLAB curve fitting. The modeling is done based on the exponential growth equation. The stringency index model was also utilized a source of analysis regarding the government responses of the groups in study. Finally, population density was found to be not a significant contributor in controlling Covid-19 epidemic in the very first month of spread; however, countries with denser populations were found better to adopt stricter regulations especially in the first month of spread as Covid-19 outbreak and total number of cases is