6 Sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract

Key trends Violence decreased in the conflicts in the Central African Republic, Nigeria (Farmer–Pastoralist), South Sudan and Sudan, while the Sahel registered unprecedented levels of violence and human displacement. Violence also continued in Cameroon, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, the Lake Chad Basin and Somalia. ISIS offshoots are present to varying degrees in multiple conflicts: from ISWAP, the most successful splinter outside the Middle East, to the little-known Central Africa Province in the DRC. The numbers of refugees and IDPs remained high across all conflicts. Ongoing violence prevented effective emergency responses to humanitarian and health crises, including Ebola and measles outbreaks in the DRC. Strategic implications Foreign powers are involved in almost all conflicts in the region. Russia’s increased involvement in the CAR sparked concerns in Washington and Paris. Burundi, Rwanda and Uganda pursued their rivalries through armed groups in the DRC, over which the latter has no control. The ousting of President Omar al-Bashir prompted Western governments to re-engage with Sudan, while Bashir’s traditional allies in the Gulf backed the new transitional government. The US revoked Cameroon’s preferential trade status and withdrew a pledge of military aid. Washington also imposed sanctions on South Sudanese officials. Prospects The implementation of various peace agreements will remain a key challenge across most conflicts because of limited capacity to reintegrate fighters (in the DRC, for example) and fragmentation within negotiating parties (in Cameroon). In Sudan, the consolidation of military power poses risks for a democratic transition and the peace process. The Sahel conflict shows signs of further expansion and threatens coastal West Africa. Somalia’s prospects for a united government are poor. Unrestrained competition between wealthy global powers (of which the country has seen some signs) will exacerbate the problem and prolong the conflict.