Thin film and crystalline technology competitiveness, past, present and future forecast

Abstract

Significant downward price pressure on photovoltaic markets by virtue of decelerating incentives, aggressive pricing for share and public perceptions of high cost are squeezing margins for technology manufacturers. It is not widely known or understood how, historically, margin pressure and unprofitability have accompanied research and development progress, and the significant progress that has been made despite these pressures. This paper will chart and provide analysis of growth for photovoltaic technologies from 1974 through 2010, including five and ten year forecasts for applications and markets also studying pricing over time. The price analysis will study the difference in prices between c-Si and thin film technologies (area penalty paid by thin films), along with assessing whether or not there is a true price premium for high efficiency technologies. The paper will conclude with an assessment of the changing incentive landscape, and the potential for lower cost along with comfortable margins going forward in the multi-gigawatt market for photovoltaic technologies.