Methodological analysis of the predicted integral risks for a “system of heterogeneous systems”

Abstract

The methodological approach which allows to analyze the predicted integral risks for a “system of heterogeneous systems” is proposed. There are formally defined integral probability of failure in a “system of heterogeneous systems” operation and probability of failure in operation of each composing system during a given prognostic period. The models for risks calculations are described. The calculated probability distribution function (PDF) of time between losses of system integrity is presented in analytical form. These approach application can help to study risks dependence on system complexity, periodical diagnostics, recovery of the lost integrity for every element of system modelled. The usability of the approach is illustrated by example.