Analyzing the Effectiveness of Vaccination as a Preventive Measure in Combating COVID-19 and Recommendations for Future Health Emergencies in India

Abstract

In order to mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, India launched the world’s most extensive vaccination drive. Almost 1.9 billion vaccination doses were given until May 13, 2022, since the beginning of the drive, with 1 billion people vaccinated for the first dose and 0.87 billion people for the second dose. The objective of the study is to analyze the impact of vaccination on the control of SARS-CoV-2 infection. The secondary data was obtained by the World Health Organization for COVID-19 cases and the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare for vaccination from January 22, 2022, to May 13, 2022. Exponential regression was performed for total cumulative vaccinations (18 years and older received at least one dose) as an independent variable and the rate of COVID infection (0.1million per week) as a dependent variable. The p-value is 0.001, with a negative slope emphasizing that the correlation is significant for the selected time period. Further, the predictive model with R2 = 0.96 shows the model is best fitted. The mathematical model supports the role of vaccination in decreasing cases of COVID-19. Predicting the rate of occurrence of infection against the backdrop of a vaccination drive can be a valuable tool for assessing vaccine effectiveness and planning for future actions. Keywords: COVID-19, vaccination, health emergencies, preventive measures