Combining Delphi Study and Scenario Planning for Indonesia Research Priorities in Maritime Sector

Abstract

Trend Assessment and Scenario Development Analysis approach was carried out in this study. This approach is a framework specifically designed to look at the direction of technological development and possible conditions that occur in the future. First stage of the framework consists of the Delphi study, which is a method for obtaining issues related to maritime and possible conditions in the future. Second stage of the framework, scenario planning, which is a method to illustrate the possibility of future conditions by taking into account the main driving factors; then technology road-mapping illustrate the steps that must be taken to achieve the ideal conditions planned. The Delphi study is applied to develop a consensus-based, prioritized research agenda for Indonesia Foresight Maritime Research Topics in year 2018–2045. Expert investigation of the web-based Delphi method was employed to develop online survey. In this study, a three round modified Delphi survey was conducted. A total of 45 study participants were participated in the third round of study. Some interview study was designed to validate some of the findings. The top 10 priority themes were determined by the web-based Delphi method result and in-depth interview of experts. The results of this study indicate that among the Indonesian maritime researcher and maritime technology expert in this study, they have a high degree consensus on some research topics. In the second stage of the framework, we used “scenario planning” approach. Scenario planning is intended to understand the perception of management in recognizing future alternatives so that appropriate decisions can be taken. Experts and stakeholders have better understanding of the issues pertaining the development of Maritime Frontier Research Topics in Indonesia, including those related to tourism, ocean and fisheries, infrastructures, energy and mineral etc. This study then analyzes the dynamics of strategic environment changes (socio-political-economic context) that determine the construction of Maritime Frontier Research Topics. By using a scenario planning analysis framework, the driving factors and uncertainty factors are formulated which are then developed into a strategic environmental scenario. There are 40 experts participated in two scenario planning workshops. The results of scenario planning exercises map 4 (four) scenarios in 2030 and 4 (four) scenario in 2045. The framework for this foresight technology activities has produced the documents for the development of the Foresight Maritime Research topics that use the combination of Delphi study and scenario planning approach.