The Theory of Risk Uncertainty Reduction

Abstract

The objective of this research is to examine the character of safety programs in not only reducing risk, but also in reducing relative risk uncertainty. This paper approximates the distributions of both the probability and severity of a mishap as lognormal and examines the likely behavior of the co-distribution as the safety process is executed. This paper also shows how differential forces across the risk plane reduce both the risk itself and the relative uncertainty in the risk at the same time. With this new approach, risk now becomes a quantitative item with a known probability distribution, providing a new metric for safety program effectiveness.