Forecasting the demand for new telecommunication services

Abstract

A forecasting method that is applicable for new services, where little historical data have been recorded, is proposed. The method uses estimators based on economical, demographic and traffic data. Compared to traditional forecasting procedures that are built upon a solid historical record of data, the method is clearly found to be weaker numerically. However, for novel services it has the advantage that it provides a result, where the traditional method would fail because the data record is too weak. Furthermore, the method has the advantage that as soon as further data become available, it can be refined to provide even better results.<>