The aging leader: Approaching age as a factor in international relations

Abstract

This article goes against the grain of traditional approaches in international relations by claiming that a leader’s biological age is a factor in this individual’s execution of foreign policy. The traditional logic of political science that has generally been diminishing the impact of a leader’s individual features on policy for the sake of institutional procedures needs to be reassessed. A common assumption is that an aging king or president, especially those entering the eighth or ninth decade of their lives, are likely to make prudent, balanced, and wise political decisions due to their rich experience. However, this notion lacks sufficient empirical support from history. The physical “wear and tear” of the aging leader, along with their declining psychological functions, are likely to negatively impact their foreign-policy decisions that may fall under the influence of the leader’s information overload, cognitive narcissism, profound stubbornness, as well as their irrational sense of urgency, and their tendency to overcompensate. In democracies, the political tenure of top politicians is limited by constitutional terms or scheduled elections. In authoritarian systems, only the top figure’s death or incapacitation become actual “schedulers” of their political tenure. Although a person’s advanced age should not disqualify him or her from public office, without institutional checks on the leader’s judgements and behavior as well as the critical power of public opinion and the press, the aging authoritarian leader can become unpredictably risky.