The impact of highly compact algorithmic redistricting on the rural-versus-urban balance

Abstract

It is commonly believed that, in congressional and state legislature elections in the United States, rural voters have an inherent political advantage over urban voters. We study this hypothesis using an idealized redistricting method, balanced centroidal power diagrams, that achieves essentially perfect population balance while optimizing a principled measure of compactness. We find that, using this method, the degree to which rural or urban voters have a political advantage depends on the number of districts and the population density of urban areas. Moreover, we find that the political advantage in any case tends to be dramatically less than that afforded by district plans used in the real world, including district plans drawn by presumably neutral parties such as the courts. One possible explanation is suggested by the following discovery: modifying centroidal power diagrams to prefer placing boundaries along city boundaries significantly increases the advantage rural voters have over urban voters.