On the Uncertainty Control in the Complex Multiphysics Systems in the Task of Multi-Scale Stochastic GHG and Carbon Balance Modeling

Abstract

The problem of uncertainty analysis in complex multi-component systems is considered. The problem of decision making with uncertainty in tasks modeling carbon balance and the analysis of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions using satellite tools was considered. Approaches to decision making under uncertainty are described in terms of interval, fuzzy, and stochastic assessments. Different approaches and algorithms to calculate carbon and GHG emissions are described. For every algorithm, errors and uncertainties are analyzed and estimated. Algorithms for uncertainty analysis based on integrated interlinked models of the system are presented. Algorithms for the analysis of components of vegetation productivity assessment using satellite data are proposed. Uncertainty component analysis allows the understanding of important properties of the system studied, and its feedback as to its anthropogenic load and impact on the climate. It was demonstrated that the comprehensive analysis of uncertainties allows not only the reduction of errors, but new knowledge about the studied systems.