The use of simulation modeling in determining Defense manpower

Abstract

Accurate determinations of manpower requirements of a combat unit such as a tactical fighter wing or a carrier task force is a stated goal of the Department of Defense. Such determinations must be defensible to both the Executive Branch (Office of Management and Budget and the President) and Congress. In order to assess manpower requirements under various combat conditions, the three services have adopted computer simulation models. While Monte Carlo simulation has provided a means of estimating wartime manpower, it has also introduced several problems which must be overcome if simulation is to continue to play an important role in assessing Department of Defense requirements. These problems have centered on the need for extensive computer and personnel resources, the lack of responsiveness to changing scenarios, the collection of reliable and accurate data, and the increasing complexity and sophistication of the models.