Monetary policy and economic growth

Hassen Guenichi, Hamdi Khalfaoui
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Abstract

In this paper, we empirically examine the impact of key interest rate on national and sector economic growth. Using Tunisian quarterly data in the period 2000-2018, we estimate, in the first step, the long term relationships through VECM analysis and, in the second we enrich our study by introducing variables of interaction. We find that key interest rate significantly and positively influences national and sector economic growth and negatively affects the inflation. In specific, our results show that the economic crisis and the approved credits respectively influence negatively and positively the link between key interest rate and Tunisian economic growth.  Finally, we show that the impact of changes in monetary policy is weaker in crisis period and improved by the bank credit rises.
货币政策与经济增长
在本文中,我们实证检验了关键利率对国家和部门经济增长的影响。使用突尼斯2000-2018年期间的季度数据,我们在第一步中通过VECM分析估计了长期关系,在第二步中,我们通过引入交互变量来丰富我们的研究。我们发现关键利率对国家和行业经济增长有显著的正向影响,对通货膨胀有负向影响。具体而言,我们的研究结果表明,经济危机和批准的信贷分别对关键利率与突尼斯经济增长之间的联系产生负向和正向影响。最后,我们发现货币政策变化的影响在危机时期较弱,并随着银行信贷的增加而增强。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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