Risk assessment of major storm situation in distribution system

Abstract

Risk and reliability have a significant connection in meaning; both of them are the facts for one inference. High level of risk is resource of lower reliability. Risk management in power system has a variety of different subjects including models, methods and applications. Risk is a mixture of probability of disturbance event and the negative effect of that occurrence. Usually it counted for random accident which has harmful effect on people's life and environment. In this paper risks study of storm situation modelled. Random failures in power system are the origin of risk and cannot control by staff. Monte-Carlo Simulation (MCS) has used to model the fault frequencies and outage time of customers. The two tools which use in financial studies to make investment decision and applicable in power systems are Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) Result of study compared to the actual reliability which confirm the improvement in the reliability of system. It is not possible to predict the precise amount of load value, Concerns of power outage in local area and possibility of a general blackout.