7. Extended Deterrence and Strategic Stability in Northeast Asia

Abstract

A changed and changing security environment has created interest in Northeast Asia in the role of U.S. extended deterrence and the requirements of strategic stability in the 21st century. North Korea’s continued progress in developing long-range missiles and nuclear weapons brings with it new challenges, as does China’s progress in military modernization and its increasingly prominent regional military role. The Obama administration is pursuing a three-part strategy to: (1) comprehensively strengthen the regional deterrence architecture, (2) preserve strategic stability with China (and Russia), and (3) cooperate with allies towards these ends. In recent years, Japan and the United States have taken significant steps to strengthen their cooperation for deterrence and stability, with positive results. The regional deterrence architecture is strong and getting stronger, especially with the introduction of non-nuclear elements such as ballistic missile defense. Japan’s contributions to this regional deterrence architecture are significant and increasing, and add credibility to U.S. security guarantees. As Japan and the United States continue to work together to advance this strategy, they face a number of emerging policy questions. Four such questions are likely to attract significant attention in both Tokyo and Washington in the coming months and years. First, on missile defense of Japan: how much is enough? Second, on conventional strike: what should Japan contribute, if anything? Third, on the U.S. nuclear umbrella: is more tailoring of the U.S. posture required for Northeast Asia? Fourth, on strategic stability: can China, the United States, and Japan agree on the requirements? The analytic communities in all of the interested countries can help generate the new insights needed to advance policy objectives. Introduction In Northeast Asia, extended deterrence and strategic stability have regained an importance not known since the darkest days of the Cold War. This is a natural result of developments in the security environment. North Korea’s continued progress in developing long-range missiles and nuclear weapons brings with it new challenges, as does China’s progress in military modernization and increasingly prominent regional