Aggregated demand analysis and forescasting methodology for the Iberian Electricity Market

Abstract

This paper introduces an aggregated demand short-medium-term forecasting methodology based on calendar and temperature corrections that returns a very low relative error prediction when tested against actual demand values in the Iberian Electricity Market. The work introduces the market structure and the revealed importance of the demand on the electricity price, according to past correlations. Then, it introduces some of the most extended metrics in the literature being used for comparison among methodologies, as well as the databases consulted to obtain the required information. The performance of the proposed forecasting method is analysed against real data and compared with other simple proposal providing good results.