Study on demand and supply operation using forecasting in power systems with extremely large integrations of photovoltaic generation

Abstract

The installed capacity of photovoltaic (PV) generation in Japan is currently more than 20 GW. This capacity has been rapidly increasing since the start of the feed-in tariff policy in 2012. The installed capacity after 2030 may be considerably larger than the current supposition if this trend continues. In this study, we conducted numerical simulations of the demand and supply operation with consideration of the unit commitment of conventional power generators using PV generation forecasting in economic-load dispatching control. This operation occurs in power systems with extremely large integrations of PV generation. The impact of PV generation forecasting errors on the demand and supply imbalance is quantitatively evaluated with consideration of the installed PV capacity as a parameter. Simulation results show that the impact of the forecasting errors becomes small for a larger value of the installed PV capacity. The results additionally reveal that efficient use of PV generation is more important in power systems with extremely large integrations of PV generation.