Method selection for demand forecasting: Application in a private hospital

Abstract

On the basis of a productive and peaceful society, the physical and mental health of individuals constituting society lies. The threat for health resulting from the deterioration of environmental conditions, genetic inheritance, etc. leads individuals to receive health care services and thus direct them to hospitals. Hospitals in the service sector are enterprises where there is very intense interaction with customers which is difficult to manage. Competition among the institutions involved in this field, to transfer the best service to our customers with cost-efficient confronts us as a necessity. One of the most important points in providing suitable is planning during making a purchase. Particularly in institutions such as hospitals where the purchase of medical supplies is a major cost item, a good demand forecast should be made for the control of inventory costs. In this study, with data taken from a hospital in Istanbul, a demand forecast application was conducted with the actual demand data for the last five years of basic medical materials used. Different forecasting methods were applied to the available data, and it was intended to determine the most appropriate forecasting method.