Decreasing Returns or Reversion to the Mean? The Case of Private Equity Fund Growth

Abstract

When a private equity firm raises a larger fund, performance tends to decline. This pattern is usually interpreted as evidence of decreasing returns. I propose a more innocuous explanation: high-growth private equity firms were on average lucky in the past and therefore are expected to experience reversion to the mean. Controlling for this expectation, the effect of fund growth on performance is 80% to 90% smaller and statistically insignificant. The silver lining is that, historically, fund managers have been able to keep decreasing returns at bay. Additional analysis highlights important differences between buyout funds and venture capital funds.