Inflation Volatility Risk and the Cross-section of Corporate Bond Returns

Abstract

As corporate bonds are primarily denominated in nominal terms, inflation uncertainty arises as a relevant source of risk. This paper analyzes the relevance of inflation volatility risk as an additional factor predicting the cross-section of corporate bond returns. I find a negative and significant inflation volatility risk premium (IVRP) obtained from the difference between high inflation and low inflation beta portfolios. Further, common risk factors in the equity and corporate bond markets do not explain the IVRP, it responds to ex-post inflation risk and is partially explained by market risk and monetary policy shocks. Lastly, I show that the IVRP is associated with firms incurring in debt maturity management to mitigate refinancing risks.