Development of an Application for Forecasting the Development of Technologies on the Example of Television and Radio Broadcasting

Abstract

At the moment, many Russian companies working in the field of software development for television and radio broadcasting can extract the necessary knowledge about trends in their field of activity by analyzing information received from foreign competitors, for example, when studying specialized popular science literature, based on information posted on the official websites of foreign competitors, when analyzing information obtained from exhibitions and presentations. Such an opportunity can significantly strengthen Russian companies in the formation of strategic development plans. The purpose of this work is to develop software for forecasting the development of technologies on the example of television and radio broadcasting. To achieve this goal, a patent parsing algorithm was developed that allows extracting the necessary elements of the description of the sources under consideration obtained from the Google Patents website, as well as an algorithm for constructing time series based on the extracted patent data and forecasting technology development using the ARIMA method. The module for extracting elements from patent files is implemented using the Beautiful Soup library, the Multiprocessing library is used for parallelizing the parsing process, Statsmodels is used for data analysis and forecasting, and Matplotlib is used for data visualization. The MySQL database management System (DBMS) was chosen to organize the storage of information. As a result of the work carried out, 28591 patents were processed, with the help of which the process of forecasting the development of television and radio technologies was tested on the basis of the constructed time series in the interval 2015-2020.