Discovery of Unconventional Reservoir Flow Physics for Production Forecasting Through Hybrid Data-Driven and Physics Models

Abstract

Routinely analyzing producing well performance in unconventional field is critical to maintain their profitability. In addition to continuous analysis, there is an increasing need to develop models that are scalable across entire field. Pure data-driven approaches, such as DCA, are prevalent but fail to capture essential physical elements, compounded by lack of key operational parameters such as pressures and fluid property changes across large number of wells. Traditional models such as numerical simulations face a scalability challenge to extend to large well counts with rapid pace of operations. Other widely used method is rate transient analysis (RTA), which requires identification of flow regimes and mechanistic model assumptions, making it interpretive and non-conducive to field-scale applications. The objective in this study is to build data-driven and physics-constrained reservoir models from routine data (rates and pressures) for pressure-aware production forecasting. We propose a hybrid data-driven and physics informed model based on sparse nonlinear regression (SNR) for identifying rate-pressure relationships in unconventionals. Hybrid SNR is a novel framework to discover governing equations underlying fluid flow in unconventionals, simply from production and pressure data, leveraging advances in sparsity techniques and machine learning. The method utilizes a library of data-driven functions along with information from standard flow-regime equations that form the basis for traditional RTA. However, the model is not limited to fixed known relationships of pressure and rates that are applicable only under certain assumptions (e.g. planar fractures, single-phase flowing conditions etc.). Complex, non-uniform fractures, and multi-phase flow of fluids do not follow the same diagnostics behavior but exhibits more complex behavior not explained by analytical equations. The hybrid SNR approach identifies these complexities from combination of the most relevant pressure and time features that explain the phase rates behavior for a given well, thus enables forecasting the well for different flowing pressure/operating conditions. In addition, the method allows identification of dominant flow regimes through highest contributing terms without performing typical line fitting procedure. The method has been validated against synthetic model with constant and varying bottom hole pressures. The results indicate good model accuracies to identify relevant set of features that dictate rate-pressure behavior and perform production forecasts for new bottom-hole pressure profiles. The method is robust since it can be applied to any well with different fluid types, flowing conditions and does not require any mechanistic fracture or simulation model assumptions and hence applicable to any reservoir complexity. The novelty of the method is that the hybrid SNR can resolve several modes that govern the flow process simultaneously that can provide physical insights on the prevailing multiple complex flow regimes.