Use of Statistical Control for Improved Demand Forecasting

Abstract

The forecasting demand is the basis of strategic planning for production, sales and finances of any company. They are used for planning and control of production for planning productive system (long term) and the using (short term) of this system. With the increasing of the competition in the automobile market, there are, consequently, the increasing of concerning about establishing a balance between offering and demand of vehicles. Then come the need to calculate statistical predictions of future demands, which are translated into a real approximation of future events of the company in question. Thus, this work is divided in two stages: first - find out the best forecasting model (lower mean percentage of error between the actual and predicted) for the vehicle demand, second - analyze the residuals control charts of the best forecasting model so that to observe and draw the points that may be outside the control limits. The main goal is to plan the production of vehicle sales within a stipulated period and create scenarios for future periods.