A Bayesian network model for evacuation time analysis during a ship fire

Abstract

We present an evacuation model for ships while a fire happens onboard. The model is designed by utilizing Bayesian networks (BN) and then simulated in GeNIe software. In our proposed model, the most important factors that have significant influence on a rescue process and evacuation time are identified and analyzed. By applying the probability distribution of the considered factors collected from the literature including IMO, real empirical data and practical experiences, the trend of the rescue process and evacuation time can be evaluated and predicted using the proposed model. The results of this paper help understanding about possible consequences of influential factors on the security of the ship and help to avoid exceeding evacuation time during a ship fire.