Monte-Carlo Simulation of Residential Transformer Loads

Abstract

A new way of estimating load on a residential distribution transformer is developed through use of a technique called Monte-Carlo gaming which combines individual appliance-use patterns to simulate peak-day load behavior. A close correspondence between actual transformer loads as measured in extensive field tests and the simulated behavior of the same loads verifies the Monte-Carlo technique. A critical analysis demonstrates the shortcomings of present-day attempts to correlate peak demand with energy use, and it is concluded that the new Monte-Carlo simulation offers a promising, workable alternative.