Regional Caucus Groupings and the Nomination Process for Non-Permanent Members

Abstract

The selection process for non-permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) consists of nomination and election stages. Although a great deal of research has explored the determinants of nominees and elected members, far less effort has been expended on identifying the determinants of candidates. This article conducts the first empirical analysis of the nomination process by focusing on the Asia-Pacific Group for the period 1990-2013. I demonstrate that pre-existing practices within regional groups significantly affect countries’ decisions to run and the degrees to which the preferences of UN members come into play. In the Arab Group, where countries have developed a pattern of rotation, the number of years countries have been waiting outside the UNSC is the only determinant of running for election. In contrast, in the Non-Arab Group, where pre-election contests have been observed frequently, countries’ expectations regarding the likelihood of winning at the General Assembly largely shape their decisions to run. However, the expected high returns from temporary membership occasionally drive members to make a bid despite their seemingly low probability of winning.