Feasibility Analysis of Digital Currency Market ——Taking Bitcoin as an Example

Abstract

Abstract. With the increasing acceptance of Bitcoin based on block chain technology, Digital Currency has attracted more and more attention. Many people think that traditional banks may be out of date, while digital currency is more convenient. Therefore, we design a mature digital money system that can replace the traditional bank based on the research of once popular bitcoin. However, some governments argue that these currencies are unregulated and have a high risk of anonymity because they are easily used for illegal transactions, such as tax avoidance and the purchase of illegal goods. Which factors are hindering the steady development of digital money prices . Is there an model to make the digital money market keep on developing? In this paper, through logical analysis, the influence factors of several kinds of digital currency prices are determined. Then we try to build a digital currency model based on Bitcoin, and analyze the price fluctuation of bitcoin price from 2013 to 2018. We find that during the development of Bitcoin, the price changes show obvious stages: the rising stage of healthy development and the stage of pathological sharp decline. In the process of analyzing the stage of its price morbid development, we find that there are some contradictions in considering the objective factors. Therefore we introduce the subjective factors that affect bitcoin price, and analyze it by analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Finally, we construct a differential equation model to analyze the influence of subjective and objective factors. The model in the end has some reference significance for the authorities trying to accept digital currency, and a warning can also be given before the prices go up to that point.