Grain consumption forecasting in China for 2030 and 2050: Volume and varieties

Mingjie Gao, Qiyou Luo, Yang Liu, Jian Mi
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引用次数: 3

Abstract

Grain consumption projections are necessary inputs for developments in infrastructure as a means to ensure national food security. In this paper, firstly, we use time series analysis to forecast the key parameters affecting grain consumption in China in 2030 and 2050, and then we employ panel data analysis to estimate the long-run demand functions for feed grain in China across a range of scenarios. Our main findings are as follows. First, we expect that per capita grain consumption (in kilograms) for urban residents increase to 355kg in 2030 and 387kg in 2050, while that of rural residents will at first decrease to 248kg in 2030, and then increase to 262kg in 2050. Second, the gross volume of grain ration and feed grain for urban grain consumption in China will be 349 million tons in 2030 rising to 416 million tons in 2050, while that for rural grain consumption will fall to 113 million tons in 2030 and 77 million tons in 2050. Third, we anticipate that other grain consumptions in China, including food processing, seed, and waste, will increase to 108 million tons in 2030 and 131 million tons in 2050. Fourth, on this basis, total grain consumption in China will be about 571 million tons in 2030 and 624 million tons in 2050. Finally, we forecast the consumption of maize, rice, and wheat in China to be 262, 154, and 114 million tons in 2030, and 318, 156 and 100 million tons in 2050, respectively.
2030年和2050年中国粮食消费预测:数量和品种
粮食消费预测是基础设施发展的必要投入,是确保国家粮食安全的一种手段。本文首先利用时间序列分析方法预测了2030年和2050年影响中国粮食消费的关键参数,然后利用面板数据分析方法估计了中国饲料粮食在多种情景下的长期需求函数。我们的主要发现如下。首先,预计2030年城镇居民人均粮食消费量(公斤)增至355公斤,2050年增至387公斤;2030年农村居民人均粮食消费量先降至248公斤,然后再增至262公斤。二是城镇粮食消费口粮和饲料粮总量由2030年的3.49亿吨上升到2050年的4.16亿吨,农村粮食消费总量由2030年的1.13亿吨下降到2050年的7700万吨。第三,预计中国其他粮食消费,包括食品加工、种子和废弃物,到2030年将增加到1.08亿吨,到2050年将增加到1.31亿吨。第四,在此基础上,2030年中国粮食消费总量约为5.71亿吨,2050年约为6.24亿吨。最后,我们预测2030年中国玉米、大米和小麦的消费量分别为2.62亿吨、1.54亿吨和1.14亿吨,2050年分别为318亿吨、1.56亿吨和1亿吨。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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