Social Media Dynamics of Shorted Companies

Carl Terve, Mattias Erlingsson, Alireza Mohammadinodooshan, Niklas Carlsson
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Abstract

The discussions on social-media forums can impact the sentiment of a company, and consequently also its stock price. As we show here, some of the most shorted companies have provided some of the clearest examples of this relationship. In light of these observations, this paper presents a longitudinal study of the cross-forum dynamics of ten highly shorted stocks that saw significant discussions on the popular forums Reddit, Twitter, and Seeking Alpha. Using the posts from these forums, their sentiments, and the daily snapshots of the stock price of each company, we use a combination of qualitative case studies and quantitative hypothesis testing to derive new insights. Through a combination of time-series analysis, clustering, and domain-optimized sentiment analysis, we study the relationship between the times that discussions peak on the different forums, the changes in sentiment, and the stock price movements. We find that all three forums are likely to experience peaks in their activity close to each other, that Reddit is most likely to peak first, and that the sentiment of Twitter discussions were more sensitive to the current derivative of the stock price than the sentiment observed on the other forums.
被做空公司的社交媒体动态
社交媒体论坛上的讨论可以影响公司的情绪,从而影响其股价。正如我们在这里所展示的,一些最被做空的公司提供了这种关系的一些最清晰的例子。根据这些观察结果,本文对10只高度卖空股票的跨论坛动态进行了纵向研究,这些股票在热门论坛Reddit、Twitter和Seeking Alpha上进行了重大讨论。利用这些论坛上的帖子、他们的观点以及每家公司的每日股价快照,我们将定性案例研究和定量假设检验相结合,以获得新的见解。通过结合时间序列分析、聚类分析和领域优化情绪分析,我们研究了不同论坛上讨论高峰的时间、情绪变化和股价波动之间的关系。我们发现,所有三个论坛的活动都可能在彼此接近时达到峰值,Reddit最有可能首先达到峰值,Twitter讨论的情绪对当前股票价格的衍生品比其他论坛上观察到的情绪更敏感。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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