WiMAX: Forecasting by integrating scenario planning and Bass model methodologies

Abstract

The primary objective of this paper is to develop a forecast for mobile WiMAX as an emerging technology using Scenario Planning and Bass Model methodologies. To understand why these methods were applied in assessing a forecast for the adoption of WiMAX, the paper will discuss the technologiy's evolution, functionality, and market competition. Literature review on the methodology and applications of forecasting in the mobile communications industry will be considered to help provide examples of technology forecasting estimations. The results obtained for each scenario will then be compared and analyzed to the behavior of WiMAXs subscribers in both the United States and Korea. The paper intends to discuss the differences in the United States and Korea models. Significant consumer interest variations, price, and population patterns are presented. The key to forecasting WiMAXs adoption technology rates is to understand the difference in consumer reactions that exists within countries. The analysis will conclude that WiMAX will diffuse in Korea at a faster rate due to high response from imitators. With big market potential and a clear vision of subscriber needs, the next major evolution is expected to occur in the area of personal broadband services. The WIMAX standard promises to deliver high speed, cost-effective and high quality services with long distance broad coverage.