Effects of the Uncertainty of Hurricane Tracks on Coastal Hazards and Evacuations

Abstract

— Hurricanes cause devastating amounts of damage to structures and infrastructure. It harms especially those coastal residents along its track. Over the last couple of years, evacuation planning for populated coastal regions has been challenging and time-consuming due to the uncertainty of the hurricane’s track. As such, with a focus on Northwest Florida, this research aims to focus on the development of evacuation scenarios for coastal communities that combines hurricane inundation and strong wind forecast and evacuation modeling. The proposed approach integrates storm surge simulation models (ADCIRC and SWAN modeling) and traffic evacuation models (Cube and TIME) by using hurricane forecasting datasets to explore the designation of evacuation zones and the calculation of evacuation clearance times in different counties. This approach was applied to three distinct scenarios with a focus on possible populated coastal cities that Hurricane Michael would have hit in 2018. Selected cities are Pensacola, Destin, and Panama City. This type of approach has the potential to help agencies make more informed decisions on evacuations using the accuracy and timeliness of forecasts and provide safer evacuations in coastal areas by avoiding the traffic jams on evacuation routes.