Intellectual Property Regulation, and Software Piracy, a Predictive Model

Abstract

In recent years, a number of studies have considered the impact of IPRs on software piracy, specifically TRIPS and more recently U.S. USTR 301 reporting, pursuant to the Trade Act. The work of Shadlen (2005) supports the assertion that a number of recent IPR reforms directly influence rates of copyright infringement. Shadlen (2005) is a significant study into the impact of the IPRs such as TRIPS, Out of Cycle reviews and USTR 301 reporting on software piracy. The study identified a number of key IPR reforms and sought to determine the impact of IPR reform differentials on observed piracy rates. The current study extends upon Shadlen (2005), comparing the pooled panel model framework to an alternative model of prediction, a backward propagation, multilayer perceptron network model. The analysis conducted herein focuses specifically on ASEAN member countries. The study employs the Garson (1991) and Goh (1995) methods of independent variable analysis to offer further insight into relative importance of the IPR reform variables.