Study on the Time Series Features of Earthquake and Tsunami Deaths

Proceedings of the Fourth Symposium on Disaster Risk Analysis and Management in Chinese Littoral Regions (DRAMCLR 2019) Pub Date : 2019-11-01 DOI:10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.8

Haoyun Wu, Xinyan Wu, Yao Lu, Hongwei Li

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Abstract

1 山西省地震局,太原 030021,中国 7153701@qq.com 2 中国地震局地球物理研究所,北京 100081,中国 wuxy1977@sina.com Abstract—In this paper, 18 earthquake cases from 1996 to 2017 and four earthquakes cases that caused tsunami and killed more than 2,000 people since 2000 were selected in China. Statistics on the death statistics of earthquakes in Sina.com were collected. The logistic function was used to fit the data of earthquake cases. The results showed that: (1) The number of earthquake deaths was reported. There is a good correlation between the curves presented at the time and the more deaths there are, the longer it takes to determine the final number of deaths. (2) The shorter the time when the number of earthquake deaths approaches the total number, the stronger the rescue ability.(3) The data show that in the face of catastrophic earthquakes with more than 10,000 deaths, especially the huge earthquakes that caused the tsunami, relying solely on the local rescue capacity is obviously insufficient.

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地震和海啸死亡的时间序列特征研究

摘要:本文选取了1996年至2017年发生在中国的18起地震案例，以及2000年以来发生在中国的4起引发海啸、造成2000多人死亡的地震案例。收集了新浪网地震死亡统计数据。采用logistic函数对地震数据进行拟合。结果表明:(1)地震死亡人数报告。当时呈现的曲线之间有很好的相关性，死亡人数越多，确定最终死亡人数所需的时间就越长。(2)地震死亡人数接近总人数的时间越短，救援能力越强。(3)数据显示，面对死亡人数超过1万人的特大地震，特别是引发海啸的特大地震，单纯依靠当地救援能力明显不足。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Proceedings of the Fourth Symposium on Disaster Risk Analysis and Management in Chinese Littoral Regions (DRAMCLR 2019)

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