The Centrality and Origins of Hypotheses

Abstract

Hypotheses are central to the hypothetico-deductive approach in medical diagnosis and to the scientific method in research. Arguably, hypotheses are central to induction as reflected in the a priori problem of induction. Yet conspicuously absent from discussions of medical reasoning is any explicit critical analysis of the origin and quality of hypotheses as they often are attributed to some psychological process. However, there are specific manners in which hypotheses can be generated, such as by interpolation among and extrapolation beyond known knowledge claims such as data. Interpolations and extrapolations in the causal mechanisms that underlie knowledge claims can also generate hypotheses. Metaphors are a source as well. Perhaps an unrecognized metaphor critical to reductionism that underlies rationalist/allopathic medicine and biomedical research is the process metaphor. Each approach has advantages as well as risks. The latter can be estimated by the notion of epistemic risk, which contains epistemic distance and epistemic degrees of freedom.