The Research on Real Estate Project Risk Evaluation Based on Monte Carlo Simulation and the Theory of Variable Weight

Abstract

The paper improved the evaluation model of real estate project risk which based on Monte Carlo simulation technology. That is use three point which are maximum possible value, minimum possible value and the most possible value to estimate the risk variable. Using AHP method, variable weight of delivered and extended risk to determine the weight of each risk factor in the model objectively, and verifying the method validity by example. The result denote the model can be effective to evaluate the real estate project risks.