Freezing the Flow: Theorizing about Democratization in a World in Flux

Abstract

International factors and the channels through which they operate are two key themes in the dialogue between theory and experience of democratization. Recent developments in Afghanistan and Iraq highlight how much is at stake and how provisional the academic consensus remains. The ”state-ness” as an empirical foundation for comparative theorizing about democratization proved to be inadequate. The apparently neat and clear-cut distinction between ”national” and ”international” factors may work when applied to the most prominent individual case histories of transition but is harder to sustain for more marginal cases, and liable to dissolve when working with comparative models. While analytical clarity requires the development of no more than a few, well demarcated alternative models, the empirical record continues to generate unexpected new patterns, borderline cases, and experiences straddle more than one model. An inductive taxonomy based on a small number of recurrent-primarily international-variables can provisionally order this potential confusion, but periodic revision is essential, given new developments.