The Future Prospects of PV and CSP Solar Technologies

Abstract

The present article briefly discusses the results of an expert elicitation survey on solar technologies carried out within the ICARUS project on innovation in carbon-free energy technologies. Sixteen leading European experts from the academic world, the private sector and international institutions took part in this survey on Photovoltaic (PV) and Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) technologies. The elicitation process collected probabilistic information on (1) how Research, Development and Demonstration (RD&D) investments will impact the future costs of solar technologies and (2) the potential for solar technology deployment and diffusion both in OECD and non-OECD countries. Understanding the technological progress and the potential of solar PV and CPS technologies is crucial to draft appropriate energy policies. The results presented in this paper are thus relevant for the policy making process and can be used as better input data in integrated assessment and energy models.