FORECASTING OF SPRING WHEAT YIELD BY METEOROLOGICAL INDICATORS ON THE EXAMPLE OF THE TETYUSHSKY DISTRICT OF THE REPUBLIC OF TATARSTAN

Bulletin of Udmurt University. Series Biology. Earth Sciences Pub Date : 2020-12-28 DOI:10.35634/2412-9518-2020-30-4-457-464

Y. Perevedentsev, I. Davlyatshin, A. Lukmanov, A. Mustafina

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

The relationship between the spring wheat yield in the Tetyushsky municipal district of the Republic of Tatarstan and meteorological parameters characterizing the temperature and humidity regime in the 50-year period 1970-2019 is considered. A multiple regression equation is obtained, where the predictors are the yield of spring wheat, and the predictors are the average precipitation for may-June, the average amount of precipitation for the growing season (may-August), precipitation for the year and June, air temperature for June, and the average air temperature for the period may-June. Correlations were found between individual meteorological parameters, as well as between the actual yield and meteorological indicators. It is shown that meteorological conditions (precipitation and air temperature) of the spring-summer period (may-June) have the greatest impact on the crop. Analysis of the regression equations showed that there is a satisfactory agreement between the actual and calculated data on spring wheat yield, which allows using them for predictive purposes.

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气象指标预测春小麦产量——以鞑靼斯坦共和国捷图什斯基地区为例

本文考虑了1970-2019年50年间鞑靼斯坦共和国捷图什斯基市春小麦产量与表征该地区温湿度变化的气象参数之间的关系。得到多元回归方程，预测因子为春小麦产量，预测因子为5 - 6月平均降水量、生长期(5 - 8月)平均降水量、全年及6月降水量、6月气温、5 - 6月平均气温。在个别气象参数之间以及实际产量与气象指标之间发现了相关性。结果表明，春夏期(5 - 6月)的气象条件(降水和气温)对作物的影响最大。对回归方程的分析表明，春小麦产量的实际数据与计算数据吻合较好，可用于预测。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Bulletin of Udmurt University. Series Biology. Earth Sciences

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