Campus motor fleet analysis for the FAA Technical Center to meet executive order 13514

Abstract

United States consumption of fossil fuels has been increasing at a rate of 8.4% since 1990 and is expected to grow by 28% from 2011 to 2040. Executive Order 13514, Federal Leadership in Environmental, Energy and Economic Performance, sets sustainability goals for federal agencies to reduce dependency on fossil fuels and decrease greenhouse gas emissions. The Federal Aviation Administration has over 4,300 registered vehicles in its motor fleet, and must reduce its emissions by 12.3% by 2020. This system provides an analysis of the life cycle costs and emissions reduction of the motor vehicle fleet at the William J. Hughes Technical Center. The analysis includes alternatives of low speed electric vehicles, neighborhood electric vehicles, and compressed natural gas vehicles. Three models are used to do analysis: (1) the demand model is a discrete-event simulation, used to determine the inventory needed to meet demand. Examples of demand events are mail delivery, and material shipping. The demand model's input is a vehicle inventory, and its outputs are metrics measuring the inventory's ability to meet demand. (2) A life cycle cost model composed of a deterministic and stochastic portions. The deterministic portion calculates preventive maintenance, overhead, and acquisition costs. The stochastic piece is a Monte Carlo simulation that projects energy consumption costs, corrective maintenance costs, and CO2 emissions through 2020. (3) A utility analysis to compare alternatives. Preliminary results indicate that the status quo inventory will not meet the requirements for GHG emission reduction. However, by reducing inventory and introducing electric vehicles, the requirements can be met while staying within current operating budgets. Based on the preliminary results, it is recommended that the FAA gradually introduce electric vehicles on an annual basis into their inventory to meet their sustainment goals by 2020.