International Business Cycles Among the Asia Pacific Economies: Implications for APEC Cooperation

Young-joon Park
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Abstract

This paper examines the characteristics of international business cycles among the Asia-Pacific economies in the period of 2000:Q1-2013:Q4. A dynamic factor model is estimated for the output fluctuations and five macroeconomic drivers of business cycles. The estimation extracts the latent common factor shared by fourteen APEC economies and the region-specific factors of North America, Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, and Oceania. We find that the relative contributions of the common and region-specific factors of business cycles are significant in accounting for national output fluctuations. Evidence for international business cycle comovements is strong between North America and the common business cycle particularly at low frequencies. North America and Northeast Asia also show significant business cycle synchronization. As for the driving forces of business cycles, international trade provides the largest contribution across four regions in the Asia Pacific and the monetary policy and productivity drivers are subsequent to it. The overall finding signifies the greater probability of economic cooperation and regionally coordinated monetary policies among the APEC economies.
亚太经济体的国际经济周期:对亚太经合组织合作的启示
本文考察了2000年第一季度至2013年第四季度亚太经济体的国际经济周期特征。估计了产出波动和商业周期的五个宏观经济驱动因素的动态因素模型。该估算提取了14个APEC经济体共有的潜在共同因素以及北美、东北亚、东南亚和大洋洲的区域特定因素。我们发现,商业周期的共同因素和区域特定因素的相对贡献在考虑国家产出波动时是显著的。国际商业周期变动的证据在北美和共同商业周期之间是强有力的,特别是在低频率。北美和东北亚也表现出显著的商业周期同步。在经济周期驱动因素方面,国际贸易对亚太地区经济周期的贡献最大,其次是货币政策和生产率驱动因素。整体结果显示,亚太经合组织经济体之间进行经济合作和区域协调货币政策的可能性更大。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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