Electoral Accountability, Leader Preferences, and Conflict: The Role of Term Limits and Military Service

Abstract

Electoral accountability underlies many theories linking democratic institutions to interstate conflict and generally is thought to be a source for peace. Drawing on this idea, recent work suggests term limits result in democratic leaders who are systematically more likely to initiate conflicts. We argue the relationship between term limits and interstate conflict is likely more nuanced and conditional on a leader's underlying preferences over the use of force. We derive a set of expectations concerning how term limits and leaders' prior military service could affect patterns of conflict initiation. Using a new, leader-year measure of term limits, we find consistent evidence that lame duck leaders with a civilian background are less likely to initiate conflicts than when they are electorally accountable and term limits have no effect on the behavior of democratic leaders who previously served in the military.