{"title":"Real Earnings of Full-Time Workers by Education, Age Group and Sex, 1974–2012","authors":"Edward Foster","doi":"10.5085/0898-5510-25.2.221","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This note rearranges the data from Census Bureau Personal Income (PINC) tables 32–35 showing earnings of full-time, year-round workers from 1974 to 2012 to display the 39-year time series for average real earnings by education, age group, and sex. Aggregated data show strong upward trends for all males and all females combined, for males and females with a bachelor's degree or more and for those with less than a bachelor's degree. However, all trends have flattened or become negative since 2000. Shifts in the composition of the work force over time mean that trends in aggregated earnings incorporate those shifts, so may not be useful for projecting earnings growth for any individual plaintiff of a specific age and educational background. The note addresses that problem in two ways: First it re-weights the aggregate statistics to remove some effects of shifts in composition of the workforce. Second it gives summary statistics for log-linear regressions of real earnings on time for all education-age-sex combinations for the period 1974–1999 and for 2000–2012. Growth for the latter period is negative for most of those combinations. Supplemental material for a Microsoft Excel workbook contains the underlying data and several figures and is accessible from the Journal of Forensic Economics website.","PeriodicalId":265321,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Forensic Economics","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2014-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"4","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Forensic Economics","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.5085/0898-5510-25.2.221","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Abstract
This note rearranges the data from Census Bureau Personal Income (PINC) tables 32–35 showing earnings of full-time, year-round workers from 1974 to 2012 to display the 39-year time series for average real earnings by education, age group, and sex. Aggregated data show strong upward trends for all males and all females combined, for males and females with a bachelor's degree or more and for those with less than a bachelor's degree. However, all trends have flattened or become negative since 2000. Shifts in the composition of the work force over time mean that trends in aggregated earnings incorporate those shifts, so may not be useful for projecting earnings growth for any individual plaintiff of a specific age and educational background. The note addresses that problem in two ways: First it re-weights the aggregate statistics to remove some effects of shifts in composition of the workforce. Second it gives summary statistics for log-linear regressions of real earnings on time for all education-age-sex combinations for the period 1974–1999 and for 2000–2012. Growth for the latter period is negative for most of those combinations. Supplemental material for a Microsoft Excel workbook contains the underlying data and several figures and is accessible from the Journal of Forensic Economics website.
本文重新整理了人口普查局个人收入(PINC)表32-35中的数据,显示了1974年至2012年全职,全年工作人员的收入,以显示按教育,年龄组和性别分列的39年平均实际收入时间序列。综合数据显示,无论是男性还是女性,拥有学士学位以上的男性和女性,还是拥有学士学位以下的男性和女性,都有强劲的上升趋势。然而,自2000年以来,所有趋势都趋于平缓或变为负值。随着时间的推移,劳动力构成的变化意味着总收入的趋势包含了这些变化,因此,对于特定年龄和教育背景的任何原告个人来说,预测收入增长可能并不有用。这份报告从两个方面解决了这个问题:首先,它重新调整了总统计数据的权重,以消除劳动力构成变化的一些影响。其次,它给出了1974-1999年和2000-2012年期间所有受教育年龄-性别组合的实际收入按时对数线性回归的汇总统计数据。在后一个时期,这些组合中的大多数都是负增长。Microsoft Excel工作簿的补充材料包含基础数据和几个图表,可从Journal of Forensic Economics网站访问。