A review of model-based scenario analysis of poverty for informing sustainability

Abstract

Ending poverty in all its forms everywhere is the first goal being targeted by the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Poverty eradication is a long-term process that faces the challenges of many uncertainties and complex interactions with other Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In order to better understand poverty and contribute to addressing poverty in a sustainable manner, this paper aims to conduct a systematic review of model-based analysis for poverty scenario in the context of SDGs. We first review 144 studies from the perspectives of bibliometric information (i.e., publication types, research topics for poverty, research objects, research scales and geographic locations) and models information for poverty scenario analysis (i.e., model types, purposes, states, temporal and spatial range, sectors considered, poverty and other SDGs indicators). Second, we discuss the pros and cons of different types of models and identify seven representative models. We also discuss the synergies and trade-offs between poverty and other SDGs. Finally, we identify four potential research gaps in model-based poverty scenario analysis and provide suggestions for future research. The review shows that poverty scenario analysis was carried out mainly from a single perspective, such as economic, ecological, and agricultural. Few studies used effective models to analyze poverty under an integrated interactions analysis of multiple sectors. Comprehensive multi-sector models are needed for global and regional poverty scenario analysis over the medium- or long-term to enhance the ability of analyzing the combined effects, synergies, and trade-offs between poverty and a variety of other SDGs.